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Welcome to Academy & Finance’s new website newsletter New Oil Order created to provide concise, forward-thinking assessments to the investment community on key oil and gas issues in various geographical jurisdiction and sectors.

In May 2009, the New Oil Order was published by Academy & Finance, in English and French (Le Nouvel ordre du Pétrole), editions.

The purpose of the book was to challenge the conventional and institutional mindset that had dominated the global oil market for years and even decades. Beyond that, the book made a number of specific forecasts of mostly unanticipated developments and changes in the market, that at the time may have seemed either marginal or improbable.
In fact, a series of events and circumstance, since the book’s publication has validated the author’s assertions of the emergence of a new order in the oil and gas markets, based on:

– An abundance of supply over lack of supply
– The game-changing role of new extraction technologies
– The essential factor of geopolitics as a determinant in high-price volatility
– The limited impact of non-hydrocarbon fuel alternatives
– The rise of the unconventionals
– The subversive role of manipulative speculation by the financial sector

Additional support for the claims in the NOO has come in the form of unqualified statements from authoritative sources. These not only affirm the accuracy of Mr Wihbey’s predictions, but they underscore the importance of understanding commodity markets, through the prism of behavioral economics and intuitive reasoning, as opposed to the outmoded exclusivity of market fundamentals.

Validation of the NOO 2009 Forecasts:
– The Myth of Peak Oil:
“What I am saying, is that peak oil theorists are fundamentally wrong….” p. 33 NOO.
Headline: Peak Oil Is Simply Not A Threat Anymore

– Unconventional Oil & Gas Supply Revolution::
“What we are witnessing with unconventional resources and associated technologies is a revolution that will dramatically alter the global oil market.” p. 51 NOO.
Headline: North America has set off a supply shock sending ripples throughout the world / IEA

– The Breakthrough Technologies:
“The Breakthrough Technologies:” p. 56 NOO.
Headline: We are truly on the cusp of a host of technological breakthroughs that will provide supplies from sources that had always been considered impractical to develop.

– Geopolitics and Oil Price:
“The geopolitical premium may be the most important pricing criteria in the post-opec era which has neither been fully appreciated nor. understood.” p. 28 NOO.
Headline: The New Geopolitical Risk-oil Price Paradigm / Deloitte

– Failure of the Alternatives:
“Substitution of carbon-based based products may look good on paper but not necessarily in practice.” p. 122 NOO.
Headline: Reasons for Failure of Renewable Energy Companies / Carla Bruni

– Market Manipulation and Prices:
“..the crisis revealed a highly speculative market condition, that is now recognized as more than speculation, but actual market manipulation… ongoing investigations by various organizations in the Unites States and Europe…will further clarify the situation” ” p. 158 NOO.
Headline: US Federal Reserve Reexamines Banks’ Ties to Commodity Markets / Bloomberg

Oil is the supreme global strategic resource.
It is entering in a new phase of its history, multipolar, regulated, transparent. As the financial and economic system is entering a new phase of regulation and state intervention, this may also happen to the oil market in the common interest of oil producers and consumers, companies and individuals. In the new oil order, there will be winners and losers, some countries and companies will lose, some will rise and dominate.
 

Paul Michael Wihbey

Paul Michael Wihbey,
President, GWEST Global Water & Energy Strategy Team, Washington DC, is an adviser to several governments and companies in North America and Africa. He published The Rise of the New Oil Order with Academy & Finance in 2009.